At the HKMA Sixth Distinguished Lecture held last week, Governor Zhou Xiaochuan of the People's Bank of China stressed that reform of the exchange rate regime in Mainland China should follow a gradual path. He cited the concept of Pareto Optimality to press home his point.
The HKMA Lecture delivered by Governor Zhou Xiaochuan of the People's Bank of China on 18 September 2003 made many of us realise how rusty our economic theory had become. Although Pareto Optimality (or Pareto Efficiency) is not exactly something taught in first year economics, it is an important enough economic concept, which economists should have come across in study or in practice. Pareto, the Italian economist born in Paris in 1848, argued that an allocation of resources in an economy was optimal if there existed no other productively feasible allocation which made all individuals in the economy at least as well-off, and at least one strictly better off, than they were initially. This Pareto Optimality in the allocation of resources seems to be a desirable situation for any economy to be in, if it can be achieved. (But this is debatable on income distribution grounds.) The difficulty is how to get there.
Governor Zhou argued for gradualism in the process of getting there and pointed to the need to tread carefully to avoid destabilising mishaps. He skilfully presented a few case studies and pointed out, for example, that big bang or shock therapy approaches in reform are not really in the long-term interests of the people. What I found most interesting, as a hiker, is his analogy to getting to the top of a mountain. The shortest way is of course to go in a straight line. But in the three-dimensional world this assumes that one can fly, if the slope of the mountain is concave, or move through earth, if the slope of the mountain is convex. I hope this is an acceptable interpretation of Governor Zhou's references to the convex and non-convex hypotheses when he expanded on the theory of Pareto Optimality. It is of course important, on the one hand, to be realistic and to recognise the ability of the hiker (Governor Zhou's "recognition issue"). On the other hand, the hiker cannot just ignore the path that he has been following in the most recent past when considering how best to move on to the top (Governor Zhou's "path dependency"). Gradualism is the safest course for reform.
Governor Zhou also applied Pareto's theory imaginatively to argue for ensuring that there is Pareto improvement when determining the reform momentum. This is a most interesting application, requiring that improvements to certain sections of the community should be achieved not at the expense of others, as reform initiatives are introduced. (This obviously will have to be in absolute terms rather than in relative terms.) It certainly helps in the further understanding of the repeated emphasis by the leadership of the Mainland on the need for striking a balance between reforms, development and stability.
It was against this theoretical exposition that Governor Zhou argued specifically for gradualism in the reform of the exchange rate regime and the balance of international payments of the Mainland. Looking at the current account of the Mainland, we are seeing a diminution of a surplus that is already quite small by international standards - likely to be only around one per cent of GDP in the first half of 2003. This is much lower than corresponding figures for many other economies. But regrettably there is much political attention on the bilateral trade imbalance between the Mainland and the United States. And there have been no rational economic arguments put forward to support the call for an appreciation of the RMB exchange rate.
It is true that there has been substantial capital inflow into the Mainland, leading to a very rapid accumulation of foreign reserves. I believe that the Mainland authorities are well aware of the risks of this, in terms of, for example, an asset price bubble that could prove to be quite destabilising to the financial system when it bursts. But, as a close observer of monetary and financial affairs in the Mainland, I have noticed significant efforts to deal with the inflow. Under the present exchange rate system, the accumulation of foreign reserves is matched by an increase in the RMB monetary base that needs to be "sterilised" if the undesirable consequences on credit expansion are to be contained. The programme for the issue of central bank bills introduced a few months ago has produced a sterilisation effect of over RMB 400 billion, or an equivalent of US$50 billion of net inflow. The opportunity has also been used to reduce lending to the government and the financial institutions, to effect further sterilisation. There is scope for securitisation of these loans to produce more financial instruments for money market operations. There is the option of changing the reserve requirement, which indeed was invoked last month when the ratio was increased from 6 per cent to 7 per cent. There is the option of making changes to interest rates to discourage further inflow, but obviously this may have undesirable effects on the asset markets. And there is the option of opening up relief valves in the capital account. There is no need to take risks on the exchange rate front.
Joseph Yam
25 September 2003
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