The New Millennium

I doubt if there has ever been a day in history to which human beings have collectively looked forward with so much anxiety as they have to the arrival of this Saturday. The approach of the day in which all the four digits of the year change, and we all step into the next millennium, has attracted universal attention. But in all likelihood it will just be another day. It will come, and go, and life will go on as usual for the great majority of us. Those who have been specialising in the removal of the millennium bug will, I am afraid, have to look for alternative preoccupations; but with their skills in great demand in this age of technology I am sure they will not stay idle or unemployed. In any case, they need a break after all the hard work.

The occasion, nevertheless, has given us an opportunity to conduct a health check on the many electronic and computerised systems and devices upon which we have become so dependent and from which we have derived much comfort and convenience. It also gives us a timely opportunity to celebrate the completion of a most painful, yet necessary, period of economic adjustment, and, hopefully, the commencement of a period of sustained economic growth. I say "hopefully" because, frankly, I cannot yet see clearly beyond the V-shaped recovery that we are happily experiencing now.

The opportunities are certainly there. Notwithstanding the reservations of a small minority, Cyberport and Disneyland will give helpful boosts to two areas of strategic importance to the Hong Kong economy, namely, information technology and tourism. And, in any case, the reservations are not in respect of the need to develop these strategic areas, but about whether Government, instead of the market, should be taking the lead in such activities. China's accession to the WTO will provide further opportunities. Hong Kong knows the Mainland much better than any other economy, and competition is very much Hong Kong's game. I am also sure that the entrepreneurial acumen of Hong Kong businessmen will effectively cope with the likely changes in the nature of Hong Kong's intermediation role in response to a greater openness among Mainland markets and that they will benefit from the associated opportunities. Closer to the HKMA, efforts to strengthen Hong Kong's status as an international financial centre will be sustained, creating attractive opportunities for Hong Kong.

But my otherwise heightened enthusiasm for the new millennium is dampened by the fact that we do not yet have an international solution that can effectively harness the explosion of international finance and reduce the vulnerability of small open markets. This means that, domestically, we have to make do with what we have got, building bigger cushions and strengthening the infrastructure of our financial markets. Reform is never easy. Globalisation will continue to introduce unforeseen factors beyond our control. We shall just have to do our best.

Let me close this week's column - and the year - with a personal thought. Winston Churchill said on Boxing Day 58 years ago to a joint session of the US Congress: "In my country, as in yours, public men are proud to be the servants of the State and would be ashamed to be its masters". I believe this underlying spirit is of great importance to economic success. I hope, in the years ahead, Hong Kong will continue to cultivate such a spirit, and with renewed enthusiasm.

May I wish you all the best as we step into the new millennium.

Joseph Yam
30 December 1999

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