The last two Viewpoints have looked at certain aspects of Hong Kong's monetary system. This third column in the series examines the implications of the convergence, in 100 days time, of the exchange rate for the Convertibility Undertakings for two of the three components of the Monetary Base.
In another 100 days, the exchange rate of the Convertibility Undertaking for the balances in the clearing accounts that licensed banks maintain with the HKMA -- the Aggregate Balance -- now moving at one basis point a day, will reach 7.80 Hong Kong dollars to the US dollar. It will then be the same as the exchange rate used, since the introduction of the linked exchange rate system in October 1983, in the Convertibility Undertaking for the banknotes, or, more precisely, for the Certificates of Indebtedness issued to the note-issuing banks as backing for the banknotes issued by them.
This position arises out of the fact that an explicit Convertibility Undertaking was not introduced along with the formal inclusion of the Aggregate Balance as part of the Monetary Base. Perhaps this should have been done in 1988 when the Aggregate Balance was "created" and indirectly put on to the balance sheet of the Exchange Fund, through the so called Accounting Arrangements with HongkongBank, formerly the Management Bank of the Clearing House. It could, perhaps, also have been done in December 1996, when the Aggregate Balance was subsequently put directly on to the balance sheet of the Exchange Fund on the introduction of the Hong Kong dollar Real Time Gross Settlement payment system. But then a number of changes were already being introduced. In delicate matters of monetary management involving, as in our case, the breaking of new ground, gradualism was considered a prudent approach.
In the event, this was done in September 1998 as part of the package of technical measures to strengthen the Currency Board system in response to the financial crisis. With the benefit of hindsight, there might have been some lack of foresight on my part, notwithstanding the merits of gradualism, in not introducing an explicit Convertibility Undertaking for the Aggregate Balance when it was first created. Instead, we had an informal, hence discretionary, convertibility undertaking with a 500-point cushion in the exchange rate. This proved to be insufficiently transparent and explicit for the comfort of the market, particularly at times of crisis, and that is why we are now entering the last leg of a 500-day long march to convergence.
Our work in strengthening our Currency Board system is very much a continuous process. This is the on-going task of the EFAC Sub-Committee on Currency Board Operations established in August 1998. The work will continue, as before, beyond the convergence of the two exchange rates of the Convertibility Undertakings on Saturday 12 August 2000, to 7.80. And, as we go along, I am sure further refinements will be identified and introduced if they are considered beneficial, always adhering to the strict discipline of a Currency Board system. This is a highly transparent process. Those interested will learn of the relevant details in the published records of the Sub-Committee.
There are a couple of specific issues that the Sub-Committee will look at after convergence. One concerns whether or not there is a need for an explicit Convertibility Undertaking for the large pool of Exchange Fund paper that could be used for accessing the Discount Window. As part of the technical measures introduced in 1998, this pool was brought into the Monetary Base, and, unlike the other two components there is no explicit Convertibility Undertaking for it. The second concerns the related question of the transferability among the three components of the Monetary Base. Although these are technical issues that do not directly affect members of the public, they may have implications for the behaviour of market participants. They will be given very careful consideration before refinements, if any, are introduced. Our guiding objective continues to be to enhance the robustness of our Currency Board system in delivering a stable exchange rate.
Joseph Yam
4 May 2000
More information on the Currency Board System can be found here.
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