Population pyramids tell us something about how Hong Kong has developed over the past few decades.
At the back of the recently published Report of the Task Force on Population Policy, there is a collection of Population Pyramids, tracing the changes in the age distribution of the population of Hong Kong over time. Those charts obviously provide important statistical input for shaping a population policy for Hong Kong. Although I started off in my public service career as a Statistician, after so many years I am no longer qualified to comment on population policy, other than to express the broad impression that I had after reading the Report that it seemed a very professional piece of work.
I particularly welcome the proposals concerning investment immigrants, and hope that policy changes will be introduced in the Mainland to enable the scheme to be extended to Chinese nationals on the Mainland as well. That is where the demand is and that is where asymmetry in the mobility of people and capital vis-a-vis Hong Kong is proving to be painful for us. But we have to understand that the restrictions imposed on the Mainland on the outward mobility of people and money are a mechanism for maximising the benefits from globalisation and minimising the risks of instability at a delicate stage of economic development. Market structures, regulation, governance, transparency and other issues have yet to attain a level of sophistication that gives sufficient comfort to the Mainland authorities to embark on an even more rapid pace of liberalisation, particularly in respect of the free convertibility of the currency.
Incidentally, when specifying the qualifying investment classes, we should bear in mind that the role of the financial system is generally to channel funds into productive investments. There is no need to force investment immigrants to go into arrangements that appear to involve direct investments. It is good therefore to see that the investment immigrant scheme will allow portfolio investments covering financial assets in the form of equity, debt instruments and certificates of deposits.
But my attention was drawn to the population pyramids not because of issues related to the proposed population policy, but because of what they say about the way in which Hong Kong has developed over the past few decades. The first population pyramid in the Report refers to mid-1961. There is a very sharp dent in the pyramid at around the age brackets of 20-24 and 15-19. This was, no doubt, due to the war in the early 1940s, when the mortality rates, particularly for infants, were high and fertility rates, forced by circumstances, were low. The post-war baby boom then came and this is reflected in the population pyramid of mid-1961 by fast-increasing numbers as one goes down the age brackets, starting from the 10-14 bracket: this was, in many senses the lucky age bracket to be in.
It is all a matter of supply and demand. When there is a shortage of people and you come into existence to meet that shortage, you belong to a lucky generation. In childhood, you will be given much tender love and care, all that can be afforded by your parents and the older generations, regardless of whether you are born to a rich or poor family. In any case, the rapid economic growth in Hong Kong in the fifties and sixties, as Hong Kong developed into an important manufacturing centre, ensured that parents could provide their children with ever-improving conditions. I feel fortunate to have grown up during these years. Like many people of my generation in Hong Kong, I started life in very humble circumstances, which gradually improved along with the growing prosperity of Hong Kong.
The sharp dent in the population pyramid inflicted by the war persisted up till now, notwithstanding substantial immigration of people of all ages over the years. The same batch of people in the age bracket immediately after the sharp dent continued to enjoy the privilege of being in demand. There has always been strong upward mobility in jobs, as long as you are willing to work hard. You can afford to take good care of your parents. You can afford good living conditions and good education for your own children. But you may also have to worry about their future because, looking again at the population pyramids, the fact that they were born immediately after a bulge instead of a dent may mean that they will not be as lucky as you have been.
Joseph Yam
13 March 2003
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